It is believed that P.M Modi is one of the most powerful and supported politicians India ever had, and it is impossible for any other party to win the 2019 elections against him. So, the question arises how can Modi be beaten in 2019 elections? Following the Bhartiya Janata Party’s by-election reverses last week, the consensus in the commentariat clearly leans towards a grand alliance which is Mahagathbandhan of opposition parties of the sort that humbled the BJP in Bihar 2015 and in three recent Uttar Pradesh parliamentary by-elections.
The biggest politician party of India (National Congress Party) is known for their arrogance and to beat Modi in 2019 they should be more generous towards regional parties, and there are slight chances of putting forward a non-congress candidate as prime minister for 2019 elections.
How effective can such a strategy be?
West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab account for 175 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats in the country. So, if any of the party wants to rule the country they have to go beyond the 272 marks.
BJP wins the last election –
336 seats won by NDA
112 Lok Sabha seats from Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal
According to the status, NDA would have been less than 50 seats short of the halfway mark without seats from these four states.
Even after the Grand Alliance of parties, congress’s collapse in its traditional strongholds which will give the BJP a huge advantage.
Therefore, the large number of states like Gujrat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan would go to polls before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Now, if the opposition parties want to win this election then Congress has to recover some ground in these states or another opposition party can provide an effective challenge to the BJP, it is unlikely that a Mahagathbandhan envisaged by Yadav would cause a lot of worry to the BJP’s election managers.
Now let’s come to the points which proves that it is impossible to create a Grand Alliance party to beat BJP in 2019 –
Very firstly all the parties of democratic India have different aims and different perspectives, which can create a big problem in Mahagathbandhan. For example, in July the party was confronted with massive rumblings within its West Bengal unit where the state leadership is bitterly divided over alliance options.
Now to maintain the Grand Alliance, Congress president Rahul Gandhi had to meet all state leaders individually earlier this week to dissipate the crises amid possibilities of Haque and some of his supporters switching over to the Mamata Banerjee let TMC.
Secondly, in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress is ready for being a part of the
“Mahagathbandhan” but is wary of the intentions of the SP and BSP, who don’t want the Congress to be given a bigger share in the seat-sharing in 2019. This kind of backstabbing or distrusting may cause the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ a real big problem for elections coming next year.
Third, the Congress National Party is more or less settled in Karnataka with JDS, where it has a broad seat-sharing understanding with its new-found ally. But, rumbling with its old partner RJD are brewing over the inclusion of JDU in the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ again.
Right now it is quite hard to say that ‘Mahagathbandhan’ will work for Congress or other parties to win the 2019 election against Narendra Modi.